Everyone knows by now that we’re going to gain anywhere between a half dozen and a dozen Senate seats this year. But exactly how progressive will these new Senators be? I decided to rank them in order of how progressive I think each Senator will be in the 11 races that I see us having a legitimate shot at picking up.
1. Franken (MN) – He seems like the obvious pick for most liberal. Maybe I’m wrong but I cannot think of anything he’s not very liberal on.
2. Merkley (OR) – I don’t know a ton about him, but from what I’ve read in Sky’s posts and his record in the OR legislature he sounds like a rock solid progressive.
3. Tom Udall (NM) – He and his brother have very similar voting records of being mostly progressive, but I think Tom will end up being slightly to the left of his brother since NM is a bit left of Colorado and I doubt he’ll feel the need to be very moderate after his imminent landslide victory over Pearce.
4. Mark Udall (CO)
5. Shaheen (NH) – Sounds like she’ll be solidly liberal on social issues and somewhat moderate on social ones. A good fit for NH.
6. Hagen (NC) – She sounds like she’ll be a good Senator, but I imagine she’ll be somewhat moderate knowing that NC is still a somewhat conservative state.
7. Warner (VA) – He governed VA very successfully as a moderate. He’ll probably vote that way in the Senate.
8. Begich (AK) – I honestly don’t know a lot about his views. I’m putting him in this spot because it’s where I think he needs to be in order to get re-elected in a state like AK. Alaska seems to be economically conservative, socially libertarian so I’d guess that’s where he’ll be in the Senate.
9. Martin (GA) – His views sound surprisingly liberal for Georgia, but he’ll probably be more of a centrist if elected. He’ll have to in a state like GA.
10. Lunsford (KY) – Sounds socially conservative and populist. Sounds like he’ll be similar to Ben Nelson in the Senate. I can live with that.
11. Musgrove (MS) – Socially like a very socially conservative southern populist. Probably the most conservative Dem in the Senate if elected.
What do you think? Do these rankings sound about right?
If you mean who will be the most liberal, then I agree with you. Franken will be our version of Jeff Sessions. Polarizing, brilliant, and outspoken. Al is never going to post an approval rating higher than 50%. He will certainly make for a more lively CSPAN the next six years. 🙂
From personal experience, I’m thinking Shaheen will vote like she governed. A lot of people are making her out to be a lot more to the left than she really is. Jeanne is no populist that’s for sure. She is moderately pro-business, favors free trade, and would not support any tax increases on small businesses. She’s probably a mix of Evan Bayh/Kathleen Sebelius (economically), Russ Feingold (civil liberty wise), and Barbara Boxer (socially). Expect her to get an A rating from both Planned Parenthood and the NRA next year. In short, a perfect fit for the Granite State. 🙂
I mostly agree with this list. I don’t know a lot about Begich, but other progressive blogs really like him. I don’t think he’s that economically conservative, and I got the feeling he’s a pretty “traditional” liberal Democrat (despite the nature of Alaska). And I think Hagan would be more liberal than Shaheen. I don’t know if it’s her gubernatorial background or the nature of New Hampshire, but Shaheen seems economically conservative. I’m pretty sure she recently advocated for PAYGO (despite the fact that it’s not really feasible now) and she was/is a member of the DLC. I also expect Martin to vote like a progressive, despite being from Georgia; it’s just a hunch I have. In fact, the previous paragraph is based entirely on (possibly ill-informed) hunches I have!
I’m still hoping against hope for a Tom Allen victory. If he gets swept into Congress on Obama’s coattails, he’d be just as liberal as Franken. He’d be “better” than Franken (whom I love) because he has legislative experience.
Hold on here for a moment. Tom Udall and Mark Udall are first cousins, not brothers. Tom’s father is former Interior Secretary (1961-69) Stewart Udall, and Mark’s father is former Arizona congressman (1961-91) and presidential candidate Morris “Mo” Udall.
I agree with you on the first three, but Jim Martin is likely to owe his political career to Obama if he wins and he’s staked out progressive positions on just about everything, so I’d think he’d be more of an asset than you suggest.
Begich is hard to guess. Liable to be hard to place. I think he’ll be pretty good on labour issues, given that that’s a strong constituency in Alaska, and the lack of a huge religious right up there allows him to be socially liberal. I don’t think we can expect Frank Church, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the better half of the caucus.
Mark Udall (Tom’s cousin, by the way) is definitely the more conservative Udall. That said, you may be right about the position. I’d put him, Begich and Martin in one nebulous group, where their progressivism is likely to be proportionate to how safe they feel.
Shaheen’s liable to be disappointing and the most conservative Dem in NH’s delegation, but not infuriating. Whereas I’d expect Hagan to be more like Pryor than anybody. She was proudly pro-FISA back when she appeared to have little chance and probably needed the netroots support.
Mark Warner is basically the second coming of Evan Bayh, but if anything an even less interesting speaker. I can’t comment as to whether or not he will betray his father’s legacy.
Lunsford and Musgrove definitely belong at the bottom of the list, although Lunsford is crotchety enough that I could see him joining the awkward squad on the occasional issue.
All in all, it’s not great. Franken and Merkley would both be progressive leaders (which is why it’s crucial that they win) – Merkley in congress and Franken as a symbol – and Tom Udall would be a relatively reliable progressive vote. Martin could prove to be a diamond in the rough, but otherwise we mostly have middling Democrats at best.
Franken’s not nearly as liberal as he’s made out to be. I’d expect Merkley to have a better voting record.
I’d say
Merkley
Franken
T. Udall
M. Udall
Begich
Shaheen
Martin
Warner
Hagan
Lunsford
Musgrove
Begich is pretty progressive from what I can tell and Martin has staked out a much more progressive stance then Warner or Hagan. I only really expect to be very happy with Merkley, Franken and Tom Udall. Begich and Martin on some stuff, the rest are just Democratic votes on some stuff. Warner may be more liberal then that if he wants to be a presidential candidate in the future (Biden’s not going to run.) The race for the 2016 Democratic nomination starts next Wednesday.
To go off topic and make a quick prediction for that race. My guesses for the main contenders are Warner as the DLC establishment candidate, Brian Schweitzer as the populist from the West and Amy Klobuchar as the progressive, female candidate. My bet is that it will be Schweitzer/Klobuchar. But probably someone I haven’t heard of or wouldn’t consider viable at this point will appear and win.
First thing I thought when I realized it was the Senate… I said, Franken. lol Nice to know we agree. lol
I think it is tricky to measure who is the most progressive or liberal. I really think there is a difference between a voting record and advocacy of particular positions. Add supporting or opposing certain regional positions, and things get even more tricky.
For example, take Jim Webb and John Tester, two of my favorite new Senators. From Progressive Punch, Webb is ranked 29th and Tester 32nd. Right in-between them, at 31st, is Diane Feinstien. Now, no disrespect to the senior Senator from California, but I think people like Webb and Tester are going to push the Democratic Party in a more overall progressive direction (and certainly a far less corporate direction) than she would. Following that logic, if elected I think a Senator Martin could fall in that tradition — and still survive politically in Georgia. In terms of an across-the-board progressive, I think a Senator Merkley would be very solid.
based on likely quality of work, rather than ideology. Especially since I’m not all that liberal anyway.
MS-Sen*: Musgrove is high on my list. For whatever reason, I feel that he’ll do a solid job representing the people of Mississippi (who aren’t much of a liberal bunch anyway), especially with a strong brand of “good ol'” southern populism.
VA-Sen: Warner I can trust with making wise decisions, based on his record as Virginia governor, pulling the state out of the ditch that Gilmore dug, and then some.
NC-08: Talk about both people-powered politics and humble backgrounds–Larry Kissell’s got both! And being a social studies teacher means he has a sense of what the education system is like, and what needs to be fixed in order to prevent embarrassments such as Americans being unable to locate Iraq on a map, haha.
WY-AL: Gary Trauner originally inspired me in his 2006 campaign with a strong message of independent thinking and making politics not partisan or even bipartisan but nonpartisan. Instead of taking sides on issues because of the party, Trauner has talked about how he will take an issue and use his own judgement as to what best to do, political parties be damned, and the stuff he’s written on his campaign website has shown that sort of moderate thinking (along with slight libertarian leanings, which I’ll admit I have).
ID-Sen: If we can win this one, Larry LaRocco will rank quite high up there among legislators who understand the working-class Americans, with his extensive “Working for the Senate” campaign. Not to mention that he’ll be one big step forward in restoring people’s respect for the state of Idaho, after the highly embarrassing Senator Craig!